At some point, these picks will go something other than 2-2. Hopefully 3-1 or 4-0! But for now, I’m trapped in an endless 2-2 loop after another .500 Saturday this past weekend, putting this column at a wholly mediocre 8-8 on the season.
This column will give out four picks per week: the game of the week, a favorite, an underdog and a wild card, which can be anything (another favorite or underdog in a game that might be flying under the radar or a total, for instance). Hopefully we’ll all be in good shape by the time the clock hits zero at the national championship game in Houston on Jan. 8.
All spreads were taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook. All times Eastern.
The game of the week
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 12 Oklahoma in Dallas
Pick: Over 60.5 points
Texas and Oklahoma have looked fairly strong defensively, but there are caveats with each.
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The Longhorns have allowed 10, six and 14 points in their past three games, but all three opponents (Wyoming, Baylor and Kansas) were missing their starting quarterback. During Saturday’s 40-14 Texas win, the Jayhawks were without Big 12 preseason offensive player of the year Jalon Daniels yet still managed plays of 45 and 58 yards from scrimmage against the Longhorns. The 16 plays of at least 20 yards surrendered by the Texas defense have averaged 36.9 yards, which is the 12th most in the country.
The Sooners gave up touchdown passes of 67 and 51 yards in Saturday’s 50-20 win over Iowa State, which ranks 100th nationally in offensive SP+, a measure of overall efficiency. Overall, Oklahoma’s opponents have had an average rank of 74th in offensive SP+. The Sooners have yet to be challenged by anyone with Texas’s firepower.
The Longhorns are No. 8 in offensive SP+, but they left points on the field against Kansas: Three of their drives past the Kansas 40-yard line ended with zero points (two missed field goals and an interception), and they settled for field goals on two other such drives. Oklahoma put up 40 first-half points against Iowa State, which entered having not allowed more than 27 points in a full game.
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The Red River Rivalry has been, well, a shootout in recent years, with the past six meetings averaging 78.3 points. With two untested defenses and two strong offenses, I think another one is on tap.
The favorite
No. 15 Oregon State at California
10 p.m., Pac-12 Network
Pick: Oregon State -9.5
The Beavers have made 15 trips inside their opponents’ 20-yard line and came away with points on all of them; they’re one of only seven Football Bowl Subdivision teams that can make that claim. Oregon State scored a touchdown on 14 of those possessions, a 93.3 percent touchdown rate that leads the nation.
The Golden Bears have allowed their opponents to advance into the red zone on 15 drives, and those opponents have come away with points on every single one of them. There are eight FBS teams that are similarly imperfect, but of those teams, only Nebraska and Kansas have allowed more red-zone drives than Cal’s 15. Plus, Golden Bears opponents have scored touchdowns on 12 of those 15 red-zone forays, an 80 percent touchdown rate that ranks 126th nationally.
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Oregon State’s ruthless red-zone efficiency, and Cal’s defensive inability in that department, is one reason to like the Beavers here. Another is the Golden Bears’ lackluster passing attack, which is essential against a Beavers defense that tends to shut down ground games: Oregon State is fourth in the nation in yards allowed per carry (2.29). Both Sam Jackson V and Ben Finley have started at quarterback this season, and neither has been all that effective, combining for eight touchdown passes and six interceptions. Coach Justin Wilcox isn’t saying who will get the nod Saturday, but I’m not sure it will matter. Oregon State covers.
The underdog
No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri
Noon, ESPN
Pick: Missouri +6.5
Teams with defenses as bad as LSU’s has been should not be laying nearly a touchdown on the road against anyone, particularly an undefeated opponent with a quarterback-wide receiver tandem that is becoming increasingly potent.
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LSU’s defense ranks 121st nationally in success rate and 129th in expected points allowed per play. The Tigers bottomed out during Saturday’s 55-49 loss at Mississippi when they couldn’t hold a nine-point fourth-quarter lead, giving up two touchdowns over the final 5:06 and posting a season-worst Pro Football Focus defensive grade for the game.
Now LSU must contend with Missouri quarterback Brady Cook (who has completed 74.5 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions) and wide receiver Luther Burden III (who is averaging 15 yards per reception with five touchdowns and has the best PFF grade of any FBS wide receiver). LSU is allowing eight yards per passing attempt, tied for 102nd nationally.
Yes, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels (1,710 passing yards, 16 touchdowns) will probably be able to move the ball through the air against a Missouri defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete 63.5 percent of their passes (102nd nationally). But Missouri’s defense ranks sixth in rushing success rate and a respectable 20th in EPA per rushing play, so LSU could struggle to advance the ball on the ground, leaving it with a one-dimensional offense that is more easily slowed.
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The loss to Mississippi was LSU’s second of the season and almost certainly ended the playoff hopes of a team that started the season ranked fifth in the Associated Press poll, so motivation could also be an issue. Last season, preseason top-10 teams went 1-5 against the spread in the games that followed their second regular season losses. SP+ projects Missouri to win this one outright, so those particular Tigers are the pick.
The wild card
Texas Tech at Baylor
8 p.m., ESPN2
Pick: Texas Tech -1
One year after they were one of the luckiest teams in the country, regression has hit the Red Raiders hard: They are 0-3 in one-score games, and quarterback Tyler Shough could be out for the season after suffering a broken left fibula against West Virginia on Sept. 23. But Texas Tech showed signs of proper adjustment in this past weekend’s 49-28 win over Houston, leaning on its running game to the tune of 239 yards, with Tahj Brooks and Cam’Ron Valdez each rushing for 106.
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The ground game is the way to beat Baylor, which ranks 121st nationally in EPA per play against the run and is surrendering five yards per carry (113th nationally, with Colorado and Georgia Tech the only Power Five teams allowing a worse average). The Bears scored 29 unanswered second-half points to cap a remarkable comeback in last weekend’s 36-35 win over Central Florida, but the Golden Knights still averaged 6.7 yards per rush as Baylor earned its worst PFF tackling grade of the season. The absence of starting middle linebacker Mike Smith Jr., who is second on the team in tackles but suffered a season-ending torn ACL against UCF, won’t help.
Texas Tech’s defense should get a boost as starting linebacker Jesiah Pierre and starting safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson return from injuries. (Pierre is second in the Big 12, averaging 9.2 tackles.) Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen returned from a medial collateral ligament injury against the Golden Knights, but the Bears still averaged just 5.8 yards per play, right around their season average.
SP+ projects a six-point Texas Tech win, and I concur with that assessment.
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